Enlargement of the European Union
The European Union originally consisted of six member states. It has since grown to 25 member states, and even more states plan to join: up to three new members in 2007 with even more after that. All in all a union of more than 30 states is fully within reach. In order to join the Union, a state needs to fulfill the economic and political conditions generally known as the Copenhagen criteria.
For details see History of the European Union.
Summary of past enlargements
Current EU statistics
| Country | Year joined | Pop in millions | Area km² | GDP in billions of USD | GDP per capita (PPP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1958 | 10.3 | 30510 | 299.7 | 29200 |
| France | 1958 | 60.2 | 547030 | 1558 | 26000 |
| Germany | 19581 | 82.4 | 357021 | 2160 | 26200 |
| Italy | 1958 | 58.0 | 301320 | 1455 | 25100 |
| Luxembourg | 1958 | 0.5 | 2586 | 21.9 | 48900 |
| Netherlands | 1958 | 16.2 | 41526 | 437.8 | 27200 |
| Denmark | 19732 | 5.4 | 43094 | 155.3 | 28900 |
| Ireland | 1973 | 3.9 | 70280 | 113.7 | 29300 |
| United Kingdom | 1973 | 60.1 | 244820 | 1528 | 25500 |
| Greece | 1981 | 10.7 | 131940 | 203.3 | 19100 |
| Portugal | 1986 | 10.1 | 92931 | 195.2 | 19400 |
| Spain | 1986 | 40.2 | 504782 | 850.7 | 21200 |
| Austria | 1995 | 8.2 | 83858 | 227.7 | 27900 |
| Finland | 1995 | 5.2 | 337030 | 133.8 | 25800 |
| Sweden | 1995 | 8.9 | 449964 | 230.7 | 26000 |
| Cyprus3 | 2004 | 0.8 | 9250 | 9.4 | 15000 |
| Czech Republic | 2004 | 10.2 | 78866 | 157.1 | 15300 |
| Estonia | 2004 | 1.4 | 45226 | 15.5 | 11000 |
| Hungary | 2004 | 10.0 | 93030 | 134.0 | 13300 |
| Latvia | 2004 | 2.3 | 64589 | 21.0 | 8900 |
| Lithuania | 2004 | 3.5 | 65200 | 30.0 | 8400 |
| Malta | 2004 | 0.4 | 316 | 6.8 | 17200 |
| Poland | 2004 | 38.6 | 312685 | 373.2 | 9700 |
| Slovakia | 2004 | 5.4 | 48845 | 67.3 | 12400 |
| Slovenia | 2004 | 1.9 | 20253 | 37.1 | 19200 |
| Subtotal (EU-25) | 2004 | 454.7 | 3973597 | 10422.2 | 22911 |
1 German reunification in 1990 led to the inclusion of the territory of the former German Democratic Republic.
2 Greenland left the EC in 1985
3 Officially the whole of Cyprus lies within the European Union. However, the de facto EU border runs along the Green Line, dividing the country in a Greek and Turkish part. EU law is currently not applied in the Turkish northern third of the nation.
Notes (for this and later tables):
- Pop is population in millions
- Area is in km²
- GDP in billions of USD, at purchasing power parity, 2001 figures
- GDP per cap is per capita GDP in USD, year as in previous column
Planned further enlargement
Bulgaria and Romania have been recommended to join the EU on January 1, 2007. These dates were firmly set at the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003 and confirmed a year later at Brussels on June 18, 2004. That same Brussels summit also saw Croatia receive candidate status, with the possibility of joining at the same time as Bulgaria and Romania.
Scheduled 2007 enlargement
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 7.5 | 110910 | 49.2 | 6500 |
| Romania | 22.3 | 238391 | 169.3 | 7600 |
| Croatia | 4.4 | 56542 | 43.1 | 9800 |
| Subtotal | 34.2 | 405843 | 261.6 | 7649 |
| EU-28 | 489.1 | 4382795 | 10683.8 | 21844 |
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 68.1 | 780580 | 455.3 | 6700 |
| Macedonia | 2.0 | 25333 | 13.81 | 6700 |
| Serbia and Montenegro | 10.6 | 102350 | 25.3 | 2370 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.99 | 51129 | 24.39 | 6100 |
| Albania | 3.59 | 28,748 | 15.69 | 4400 |
| Moldova | 4.43 | 33843 | 11.51 | 2600 |
| Subtotal | 92.71 | 1021983 | 566.6 | 6112 |
| EU-34 | 577.4 | 5370935 | 11023.05 | 13412 |
Source: CIA World Factbook 2003
After Slovenia, Croatia has recovered best from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia and so hopes to become the second former Yugoslav state to become a member, possibly joining by 2007 and likely by 2010.
The FYROM will probably have to resolve its disputes with Greece, or at least reduce them, before talks can begin. The republic also faces an Albanian problem similar to Serbia's, although it still maintains sovereignty over all its territory. Macedonian officials have suggested that it could join between 2010 and 2015.
However, recent developments have shown a strong and wide-reaching reform program. At the end of 2004, the EU will decide whether to start accession negotiations with Turkey. Under Justice and Development Party (AKP), a popular pro-European party with Islamist roots, the Turkish government has lifted a ban on the teaching of Kurdish as well as ratifying the Sixth Protocol to the European Convention on Human Rights and signing the 13th Protocol, meaning it has abolished the death penalty for all peace time crimes and intends to abolish it for war time crimes. Turkey also strongly backed the EU-supported UN plan to reunite Cyprus, a key influence in the successful Turkish Cypriot side of the vote.
Critics oppose Turkish membership for several reasons, including that most of Turkey's territory is not European but Asian, and human rights issues. Proponents answer that Turkey has been intimately involved in European history for about 500 years and that it considers itself a European state. A prevalent point of view in Turkey is that some in the EU are reluctant to accept a Muslim state, albeit a strongly secular one, into what is seen by some as a Christian club.
It is yet unknown when Turkey will join. A poll of analysts, taken by Reuters news agency in 2004, predicts it will join in 2015. Many people, however, are saying that Turkey will probably join after 2020, if at all.
At present the EU is very interested in the Balkans and their integration. After their integration it is likely that the South Caucacus and Turkey would be the next focus. It has been said that "Belarus is too authoritarian, Moldova too poor, Ukraine too big and Russia too scary" to have a place in the union anytime soon. So it is logical to assume that once the Balkans have a place in the union enlargement will be a much smaller topic. With Georgia's recent reform programme, however, there may still be an open door for the South Caucasus.
The Union may show some leniency regarding its economy due to the political issues at stake. Romano Prodi has stated that Bosnia has a chance of joining the EU soon after Croatia, somewhere around 2010, but that it is entirely dependent on local progress and that it may be delayed until 2014 or even later.
Serbia has to deal with the ethnic tensions in the region of Kosovo as well as poverty in the south of Serbia and widespread corruption. Montenegro is having ecological problems and problems with law and crime. Serbia and Montenegro started the reform process in 2000. EU predicted that they will probably join in 2012 together with Bosnia and Macedonia.
Thorbjørn Jagland has proposed that Norway and Iceland should prepare a common strategy before launching membership negotiations with the EU. His Icelandic counterpart has expressed agreement.
The Vatican City is also a microstate that isn't likely to join the EU due to its rather unique status.
The self styled Principality of Sealand will almost certainly never join since its very status as a country is disputed at best. It has never been officially recognised by any recognised country, though proponents of the Principality of Sealand argue that various past incidents (UK courts ruling it outside of UK jurisdiction and a visit from a German diplomat) amount to de-facto recognition. Although Sealand has expressed concerns over terrorrism, its adherence and/or conformity to EU laws is heavily disputed and its endeavours with HavenCo are, by some, alleged to facilitate crime.
Under the new voting system proposed in the draft EU Constitution Russia would cause a huge imbalance within the union due to its large population. It also faces the problem in that its territory is mostly in Asia, similar to Turkey (although unlike Turkey, most major population centres, and the centres of power, are in European Russia).
The gap between the rich and the poor is extremely large, the economy needs improvement, and corruption is also a major issue.
Russia is also thought to be too authoritarian. Amnesty International and other human rights organisations have recently declared the Russian press to be controlled. Human rights continue to be an issue and the suspicion cast on Russia after years of communism is still vast. There are also numerous disputes within the Federation, especially in Chechnya.
Russia has built closer relationships with Europe and the USA with a NATO-Russia pact, but the Kaliningrad exclave is still an issue. Should Russia apply to join, steps similar to Turkey's will have to be followed. The earliest it could join would be the year 2020, although at this stage, any speculation on its entry remains premature.
The British crown dependencies of Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man might be said to be in a position similar to many of the microstates in Europe. Their economies are often based on special economic laws incompatible with EU standards. They and the UK sovereign base areas on Cyprus were excluded from the EC when the UK joined in 1973.
The Faroe Islands, a Danish dependency, would be reluctant to join due to the economic significance of its fishery and the need to retain control of those resources in their territorial waters, much like Norway and Iceland. It was excluded when Denmark joined in 1973.
Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland, has adopted several unique measures with the EU regarding travel for its citizens to and from the rest of Russia. Currently it could only join if Russia did, but there are several independence movements within the enclave.
See Special member state territories and their relations with the EU for more information.
Morocco has submitted applications to join the EU several times, but it has been turned down since it is not considered a European country. Even if this obstacle was ignored, other factors such as the developing economy or unresolved border issues with several of its neighbours and the occupation of Western Sahara would still hinder its application.
As in the cases of Tunisia and Morocco, the virtue of being geographically outside Europe might preclude its inclusion into the EU as well.
Applicant Status
Bulgaria
Bulgaria is set to join the EU in 2007. Bulgaria has already taken steps to integrate itself with the EU, including unilaterally linking its currency to the Euro (Lithuania and Estonia also did this before entry). It closed entry negotiation talks in June 2004 and received confirmation from the EU that it would join in 2007 as planned.Romania
Romania is set to join the EU in 2007. It hopes to close talks before the end of 2004 so it could sign the accession treaty in 2005 and join the European Union in 2007 as planned. Romania has already closed 26 out of 31 chapters of the acquis communautaire (that is the EU's body of law) as of June 2004.Croatia
Croatia applied for EU membership in 2003. The European Commission recommended making it an official candidate in early 2004.
At the European Council
on 18 June 2004, the heads of governments of the European Union granted candidate country status to Croatia. Talks on accession are due to begin early 2005.Republic of Macedonia
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia applied to become an official candidate in January 2004. The EU will probably reply on whether the accession negotiation will start in 2005.Turkey
Turkey was officially recognised as a candidate for membership in 1999, after having been an Associate Member since 1963, but it has not yet been permitted to start negotiations due to concerns about its human rights record and about the involvement of the military in Turkish politics.Future enlargement candidates and possibilities
Within Europe
Other former Yugoslavian states
The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was reasonably close to applying to join the EEC at the end of 1980s — it was already on a higher level than some member countries like Greece and Portugal. However, it was still a communist state, though with a relatively benign regime when compared with Soviet satellites. Finally, the civil war stopped the integration. At the Thessaloniki summit in 2003, the integration of the former Yugoslav republics and Albania was set as the next major goal of future EU expansion. A furthur meeting in Mamaia, Eastern Romania concluded that "Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania are (hopefully able) to join the EU between 2010 and 2015" depending on their fullfillment of the adhesion criteria. Austria, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia (EU members) and Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine (EU hopefuls) attended this summit.Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina still has many economic as well as political problems. Recently it has been making a slow but steady progress, so the outlook is good.Serbia and Montenegro
Serbia and Montenegro may join separately because of economic disputes between the two republics, which still have to settle the decision of whether to continue in a union (around 2006).Albania
Albania's accession to the Union depends on its economic improvement and resolution of border disputes. Given its comparatively recent engagement with Western European politics, it is impossible to predict when it may join but it hopes to do so within a decade. Although its entry has been set as a priority by the European Commission so as to stabilise the Balkans. It hopes to join with the rest of the Balkans between 2010-2015.European Free Trade Association
Switzerland
Switzerland began talks with the EEC for membership, but a Swiss referendum in 1992 froze them. Further referenda (the last on March 4, 2001) have shown a majority against membership. It is thought that the fear of a loss of neutrality and independence is the key issue against membership.
The Swiss federal government policy has recently undergone substantial U-turns in policy, however, concerning specific agreements with the EU on freedom of movement for people, workers and areas concerning tax evasion have been addressed within the Swiss banking system. This was a result of the first Switzerland-EU summit in May 2004 where nine bilateral agreements were signed. It has alledgedly "moved Switzerland closer to the EU" [1].Norway
Norway, like most other Scandinavian states, is reluctant to surrender sovereignty to a supranational entity. The Norwegian government also wishes to keep control of fishery resources in their territorial waters. Norway has applied twice for EEC and EU membership, but the two referenda on the issue have been lost by the government. Another referendum could take place in 2005 as the majority of the population now favours integration. Iceland
Iceland, like Norway, is reluctant to join due to a desire to keep control of fishery resources in its territorial waters. Iceland has never applied for EU membership. If Iceland and Norway share a common unity on issues regarding entry as backed by Icelandic Prime Minister Halldor Asgrimsson there is a possibility that its joining will come with more ease as it has the power of two countries in the force of one united view. Entry may come sooner than many are expecting.Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein, is (like Norway and Iceland) a member of the European Economic Area. It might consider joining the EU if Switzerland joined.Microstates
As for the very small states, such as San Marino, Andorra and Monaco, it is unlikely that they will ever join, as their very existence as sovereign nations is tightly bound up with their special economic laws, which are not compatible with EU standards.Sovereign Order of Malta
Although the Sovereign Order of Malta is recognized by some countries as a sovereign subject of international law, its precise nature (e.g. the question of statehood) is disputed and it has no territory.Russia
At present, the prospect of Russia joining any time in the near future is slim.Other post-Soviet states
Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, which are or have been closely linked to Russia, will probably remain outside the Union, at least for a significant amount of time. They are not currently on any enlargement agenda as the Union is currently focused on the Balkan states and Turkey but after this inevitable enlargement it is probable that they will be the logical next wave of enlargement. A summit in Mamaia, Eastern Romania in May 2004 has shown this to be the case though only Ukraine and Moldova were present as Belarus is currently not concerned with membership. (It is also to be noted that the EUs good-neighbour policy includes these three states).Ukraine
Both the government and the main opposition of Ukraine advocate joining the EU and developing ties with Europe rather than with Russia. But as with Russia, many are wary of Ukraine's sheer size. A Ukraine-EU Troika meeting in April 2004, on the eve of the newest wave of expansion, dealt a blow to Ukraine's European aspiration when the EU ministers failed to grant market economy status to Ukraine. For the time being, Ukraine will most likely develop some sort of intermediate relation with the EU as it is strongly backed by all major political forces in Poland, a current member with strong historical ties with Ukraine (through the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth). The new century has brought economic growth for the first time, with rising industrial output, improving exports, and falling inflation, and spells a promising future. If it reforms enough, it could gain full membership by around 2020. In 2002, EU Expansion Commissioner Gunter Verheugen said that "a European perspective" for Ukraine does not necessarily mean membership in 10 or 20 years, however, that does not mean it is not a possibility.Belarus
Belarus or "White Russia" is thought to be too authoritarian to join the EU, even though it has a fairly high standard of living in comparison to other states in the region. Private business, however, is virtually non-existent. Foreign investors stay away and even Moscow has shown signs of exasperation in recent years. If a new government is put into place, it may join in 2020 with Ukraine, but if conditions remain the same, it will probably not join.Moldova
Moldova currently has little hope of joining, since it is not only hampered by poverty but currently leaning more towards Russia than the EU and facing political problems in Transnistria and Gagauz. Its relationship with Romania, which is set to soon become an EU member, has also been strained, with Moldova publicly accusing Romania in various aspects. The prospect of union with Romania is constantly an issue, even though many people are expecting this not to happen. If Romania joins the EU in 2007, which is likely, and Moldova unifies with the country later, it could automatically become part of the EU just as East Germany joined the EU when it reunified with West Germany in 1990. Chances of this happening, though, are very slim. If Moldova were to continue as an independent state, it could at best join the EU in 2020 with Ukraine and Belarus, even though the most likely scenario is either no membership at all, some form of associate membership, or full membership after 2030. The government has stated that Moldova has European aspirations but there has been little progress. On May 1, 2004 many EU enthusiasts waving the EU flags found their flags confiscated by police and some were arrested under the clause of "anti-nationalism."The Caucasus states
These states have been the site of much conflict in 1990s. Currently,
there seems to be an overwhelming feeling of hope in the region's future. Their membership in the EU would be controversial as they are often considered in political Europe but not geographical Europe. They could only join if Turkey did so too as their inclusion would justify Turkey as a geographically European country. They have contributed to European culture and the EU has been said to express interest in their integration and the hope to end war in Europe and increase prosperity. The Caucasus states are, however, closely linked with Russia and would need to concentrate more on their European partners to attain candidate membership. It is unclear as to when they may join but they are part of the so called EU good-neighbour policy and also what the EU calls "a wider Europe".Armenia
Armenia is still in conflict over the disputed area Nagorno-Karabakh with neighbouring Azerbaijan. A ten year ceasefire has been in place, but tensions are high, and with Azeri military spending on the increase, there is fear a war could be at hand. The country's economy is growing, but at an incredibly slow pace. Foreign investors are said to be extremely wary. Armenia is also in the embarrassing position of losing 20% of its population in recent years to hopes of a better life abroad. Whilst Armenia shares European culture, it has not expressed the wish to join the EU, although public opinion suggests the move for membership would be welcomed. It will have to resolve disputes and battle corruption. The Metsamor plant, which is sited some 40km west of the Armenian capital Yerevan, is built on top of one of the world's most active seismic zones and so would have to be closed for any contemplation of their joining. Recently Armenia has told the EU they will not close the plant, this has lead to the freezing of €100m worth of aid by the EU and deterioration of the Armenia-EU relationship. No speculation into Armenia's dates of membership can currently be made but of all the Caucacus it is the least favoured due to fewer natural resources and their close relationship with Russia.Georgia
Georgia has recently undergone substantial reforms. Under Georgia's new president Mikhail Saakashvili, the wish to join the EU has been explicitly expressed on several occasions and the links to the EU and the USA are being strengthened. Disputes continue over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In Ajaria, the authoritarian leader, Aslan Abashidze, was forced to resign in May 2004. It is the most favoured Caucasus country to join the EU but territorial disputes and corruption are still an issue. It has not, as yet, applied for EU membership but the President has said the country would be ready in three years time, however, one must ask would the EU be? Sometime after 2015 is a reasonable estimation but it is debatable whether any estimation can be made at this stage.Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is a predominantly Muslim country and is not thought to share a lot with European culture. Conflict over the disputed area Nagorno-Karabakh would need to be resolved. Its military spending is becoming somewhat of an alarm to the EU which wishes to ease tensions in the area. The oil-rich country has made improvements to the infrastructure of the country but much of the money does not seem to find its way into the country's fragile economy. It has not expressed wishes to join the EU but, if it did, the integration could be expected by 2020 at the earliest. It would most likely face similar difficulties as Turkey as it is predominantly Muslim and little is known about this country in the rest of Europe.European dependencies
In theory, the EU treaty covers the European territories for whose external relations a Member State is responsible. In practice this only applies to Gibraltar, and it is not part of the Customs Union. The Åland Islands also have a special status and are part of the EU. Beyond Europe
Southern Mediterranean (Maghreb) states
Tunisia entered into an Association Agreement with the European Union in 1995 which started removing tariffs and other trade barriers on most goods in the 1998-2008 period. Once the free trade area is fully functional, the status of Tunisia with regards to the EU will be similar to the present status of Norway and Iceland. However, no further involvement is planned beyond that point.Israel
The Israeli government has hinted several times that a EU membership bid is a possibility. It is unknown whether talks will begin, given the current instability in the Middle East.Overseas dependencies
The overseas dependent and autonomous territories of the member countries often have a special status relative to the European Union. In some cases territories not even on the European continent belong to the EU (French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion, the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, Ceuta, and Melilla) yet there are other cases where the European dependencies of member countries are not part of the union. It is fully possible that these could leave or join the union, even though not as full members in their own right.Greenland
The Danish dependency Greenland was an integral part of Denmark when the country joined in 1973. In 1979 Greenland was granted home rule and following a local referendum it left the European Community, on February 1, 1985. The EC was the predecessor of the European Union and Greenland is unique as an example of a territory having left the organization. Greenland is unlikely to ever rejoin as it becomes increasingly independent, leading to closer integration with its geographical North American neighbours.See also
External links